• President Trump paused his sweeping tariff plan, implementing a universal 10% rate for 90 days. This triggered a historic Wall Street rally. However, stock futures slipped on Thursday as investors digested the gains.
• US inflation eased more than expected in March. China’s inflation remained subdued. Goldman Sachs lowered China’s GDP forecast. Investors are now focused on U.S. producer price index data.
• Constellation Brands, Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Intel, CarMax, United States Steel, UBS, General Motors, and Newsmax all saw premarket moves.
• President Trump paused most tariffs for 90 days but escalated tariffs on China. The EU delayed retaliatory tariffs.
• Goldman Sachs downgraded Ford and auto suppliers Lear and Visteon.
• European markets opened sharply higher on Thursday. Asia-Pacific markets also posted solid gains.
• Treasury yields fell sharply.
• Gold surged as investors sought safe-haven assets. Crude oil futures retreated. Bitcoin rallied.
• Despite Wednesday’s historic rally, analysts caution that markets remain turbulent.

In a dramatic policy shift, U.S. President Donald Trump paused his sweeping “reciprocal” tariff plan, replacing it with a universal 10% rate for the next 90 days. The surprise move triggered a historic rally on Wall Street, with major indexes surging as investors cheered the temporary reprieve from escalating trade tensions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the decision was part of Trump’s strategy “all along,” framing the shift as a calculated measure to encourage negotiations and calm markets. Despite Wednesday’s euphoria, stock futures slipped on Thursday as investors digested the previous session’s massive gains. Tech names, including Apple and Tesla, led the pullback in premarket trading, each down over 3%. March inflation data showed a larger-than-expected slowdown, with the annual rate easing to 2.4%. The data could support the case for looser monetary policy, especially if global growth headwinds persist amid trade uncertainty.

US Market Previous Day:

U.S. stocks soared Wednesday in one of the most dramatic relief rallies in modern market history. The S&P 500 surged 9.52%, marking its biggest single-day gain since 2008 and the third-largest jump since World War II. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 7.87% — its strongest advance since March 2020 — while the Nasdaq Composite exploded 12.16% higher, its best day since January 2001 and second-best on record. The rally came on unprecedented trading volume, with around 30 billion shares changing hands, setting a new all-time high according to 18 years of data.

(Source: TradingView.com)

Tech stocks led the rally in spectacular fashion. Apple soared 15% — its best day since 1998 — adding over $400 billion in market cap and snapping a brutal four-day, 23% decline. Tesla surged 22% for its best performance since 2013, while Nvidia jumped nearly 19%. Meta gained almost 15%, Amazon rose 12%, and Microsoft and Alphabet each advanced around 10%. The stunning gains reflect a sharp reversal in sentiment, as investors piled back into oversold megacap names following a turbulent week.

US Futures Turn Red:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined by 1.61%
• S&P 500 futures showed losses of 2.13%
• Nasdaq Composite futures lead the pack with losses of 2.64%.

Biggest Premarket Movers

• Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ): Fell 2.7% after forecasting fiscal 2026 profit below expectations, anticipating the impact of steep Trump administration levies on its beer and spirits business.
• Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Slid 3.7% in premarket trade, part of a broader decline in megacap and growth stocks after strong gains in the previous session.
• Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): Dropped 3.2% in premarket trade, mirroring the trend in other megacap and growth stocks following recent substantial increases.
• Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Stock fell 3.1%, giving back some of the 15% gains from the prior session. This occurred despite a Reuters report indicating the company has flown around 1.5 million iPhones from India to the United States to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Intel (NASDAQ:INTC): Stock fell 4.1% following a Reuters report that Lip-Bu Tan, the designated leader of the US’s largest chip maker, has invested in numerous Chinese tech firms, including at least eight with alleged ties to the People’s Liberation Army.
• CarMax (NYSE:KMX): Stock fell 7.2% after the used vehicle retailer reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, triggering selling pressure after a 12-month gain of over 11%.
• United States Steel (NYSE:X): Stock fell 10% after President Trump stated his opposition to the steel producer being acquired by a Japanese company, specifically Nippon Steel.
• UBS (NYSE:UBS): Stock fell 1.7% despite the Swiss lender reaffirming its plan to repurchase $3 billion worth of shares in 2025, amidst upcoming capital rule changes and global economic uncertainty.
• General Motors (NYSE:GM): Stock fell 3% after UBS downgraded its rating on the auto giant from “buy” to “neutral,” citing the potential impact of tariffs on the company’s cost structure and a possible decrease in auto demand.
• Newsmax (NYSE:NMAX): Stock fell 5.5%, adding to the previous session’s 11% loss, after a Delaware judge ruled that the conservative news outlet had published defamatory and false statements regarding Dominion Voting Systems’ role in the 2020 election.

Tariff Update:

Exactly one week after announcing sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” that roiled global markets and heightened recession fears, U.S. President Donald Trump reversed course on Wednesday, lowering most of the new tariff rates to a universal 10% for a 90-day negotiation period. The announcement came via a midday post on Truth Social, just 13 hours after the original, higher tariffs took effect. However, the reprieve notably excludes China. In fact, Beijing now faces an even steeper 125% tariff — up from 104% — after Trump escalated in response to China’s countermeasures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted the rollback was “Trump’s strategy all along,” though the president later remarked that he simply acted because “people were getting a little bit yippy.”

In response to Trump’s shift, the European Union said it will delay implementation of its own retaliatory tariffs for 90 days. EU leaders had already voted in favor of countermeasures targeting a range of U.S. goods — particularly in steel and aluminum — but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed a pause in light of the White House’s de-escalation, aiming to provide room for constructive talks.

Key Economic Data/News:

On the macro front, U.S. inflation eased more than expected in March. Headline CPI fell 0.1% on the month, bringing the annual rate to 2.4%, while core inflation slowed to 2.8% — the lowest level since March 2021. The data comes as tariff uncertainty clouds the near-term economic outlook. The softer inflation print reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve may respond with rate cuts later this year.

In China, inflation also remains subdued. March’s consumer price index dropped 0.1% year-over-year, keeping the country in deflationary territory following February’s 0.7% decline. Producer prices, meanwhile, fell for the 29th consecutive month, down 2.5% from a year earlier.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China from 4.5% to 4.0%, citing the severe increase in U.S. tariffs. The effective tariff rate on Chinese exports has surged from 11% at the start of Trump’s presidency to 125% today, with Goldman estimating a 2.2 percentage point hit to China’s real GDP next year.

However, the broader economic damage may be somewhat cushioned. According to Zheng, a portfolio manager at China Evolution Equity Strategy, only 2.7% of China’s GDP is directly tied to U.S.-bound exports, or 3%-3.5% when factoring in re-exports and trade diversions. Moreover, constituents of the MSCI China Index have only about 1% revenue exposure to the U.S., though secondary effects from a weaker economy may still be felt.

Investors now turn their focus to U.S. producer price index data for March, set to be released Friday. The numbers will offer further insight into inflation dynamics and the potential trajectory for interest rates amid volatile trade policy developments.

Company News

Goldman Sachs has downgraded Ford Motor (NYSE:F) from Buy to Neutral, citing a tougher macroeconomic and competitive landscape for U.S. automakers. The investment bank admitted its prior cyclical optimism on Ford had been “too positive,” noting that consensus earnings estimates for 2025 have dropped 32% since Ford was added to Goldman’s Buy list last September. While the bank acknowledged Ford’s efforts to cut net costs and its advantage from a robust U.S. manufacturing base — which may help cushion the blow from rising tariffs — several structural headwinds persist. These include softer consumer demand, mounting tariff-related costs, and growing international competition.

Alongside Ford, Goldman also downgraded two tier 1 auto suppliers — Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) and Visteon Corp (NASDAQ:VC) — to Neutral, warning that declining vehicle volumes may challenge suppliers’ ability to maintain margins. The bank estimates that new vehicle prices in the U.S. are likely to rise by $2,000 to $4,000 over the next six to twelve months as automakers seek to pass on higher input costs driven by tariffs.

Global Market Trends:

European markets opened sharply higher on Thursday, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily ease tariff pressure. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index jumped 4.9%, reversing part of the prior session’s losses, with strong gains across all major sectors. Banking, technology, and industrials stocks led the rally, as investors took a breather from a volatile week that had seen the index fall 3.5% to its lowest close since January 2024.

Asia-Pacific markets also posted solid gains, taking their cue from Wall Street’s powerful rally after Trump announced a 90-day pause on increased tariffs for all countries except China. Japanese equities led the region, with the Nikkei 225 surging 9.13% to 34,609 and the broader Topix up 8.09%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 6.60%, while the Kosdaq added 5.97%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 4.54%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 2.06%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 edged up 1.31% amid ongoing concerns over punitive U.S. tariffs. T. Rowe Price’s Wenli Zheng described the jump in U.S. duties on Chinese goods — from over 50% to over 100% — as “effectively prohibitive,” warning they are likely to cause significant disruptions to global trade.

Debt Market:

(Source: TradingView.com)

U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday as investors welcomed a 90-day pause on most of President Donald Trump’s recently imposed tariffs. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped over 9 basis points to 4.306%, while the 2-year yield fell 10 basis points to 3.85%, reflecting renewed demand for bonds after a period of heavy selling. Just one day prior, the 10-year yield had surged past 4.51% and the 30-year yield spiked above 5%, prompting speculation that major foreign holders such as Japan and China were reducing their holdings of U.S. debt.

Although White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said bond market volatility wasn’t the main reason for Trump’s tariff pause, he acknowledged it may have hastened the move. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%, while the 30-year rate surged past 5% overnight on Wednesday, causing bond prices to plummet. According to Reuters, traders speculate that Japan and China might be offloading U.S. government bonds, which could raise concerns for the White House administration.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold surged on Wednesday, recording its biggest one-day gain since October 2023, as investors rushed into safe-haven assets amid intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. The spike was triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of steep new tariffs on Chinese exports, reinforcing gold’s status as a refuge during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic instability.

Crude oil futures, meanwhile, retreated more than 2% on Thursday. The pullback came after an initial rally the previous day, when Trump signaled a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for most U.S. trading partners. West Texas Intermediate crude swung 13% intraday before closing at $62.35 per barrel on Wednesday. However, renewed selling pressure emerged Thursday after the White House raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, casting a shadow over global demand prospects—particularly from China, the world’s largest crude importer.

(Source: TradingView.com)

Bitcoin also rallied on Thursday, bouncing back from recent losses as global risk appetite recovered in response to the tariff reprieve. Like equities, crypto markets moved largely in sync with broader sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s upside was tempered by lingering concerns over the deepening U.S.-China standoff, which threatens to escalate into a more protracted trade conflict following Trump’s exclusion of China from the 90-day tariff pause.

Market Sentiment:

Despite Wednesday’s historic equity rally—the S&P 500 posted its third-largest one-day gain since World War II—analysts caution that markets remain in turbulent territory. Similar relief rallies were observed during major downturns like the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis, and the Covid crash. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that while Trump’s tariff pause eases short-term pressure, the policy uncertainty continues to weigh on economic confidence. Early-year data already shows signs of economic slowing, and volatility is expected to remain elevated as global negotiations unfold.