Stock futures rebound as markets brace for Trump’s tariffs and key jobs data. Bitcoin surges past $95K on U.S. crypto reserve news, while Tesla jumps 3% on bullish analyst call. Global stocks climb amid easing tariff fears — stay updated on market volatility

• Stock futures edged higher Monday, bouncing back after steep February losses, as investors awaited tariff announcements from President Donald Trump and key employment data later in the week. Despite lingering uncertainty, traders jumped back into riskier assets like Tesla and Bitcoin.
• U.S. stocks climbed Friday, capping off a turbulent week and a losing month for major indexes. The rally came despite a brief pullback following a heated exchange between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an unusual Oval Office clash, which heightened geopolitical concerns.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.2%, S&P 500 futures were up by 0.35%, and Nasdaq Composite futures led the pack with gains of 0.66%.
• Investors are closely watching the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI reports; U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed tariff negotiation news; the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker now estimates GDP contraction; and China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of resilience.
• European markets climbed on Monday, driven by a surge in defense stocks, and in the Asia-Pacific region, markets largely advanced as investors awaited more clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.
• U.S. Treasury yields increased as investors anticipated further details on President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.
• Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened; oil prices were little changed; and cryptocurrencies rallied sharply on Monday, with Bitcoin jumping over 20% following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve.

Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday, bouncing back after steep February losses as investors awaited tariff announcements from President Donald Trump and key employment data later in the week. Despite lingering uncertainty, traders jumped back into riskier assets like Tesla and Bitcoin. Tesla shares surged over 3% in early trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicted the stock could rebound by nearly 50%.

All major U.S. benchmarks closed lower in February, and volatility looks set to continue. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports — with rates as high as 25% — are set to take effect Tuesday, though Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted the administration might ease the rates. Additional tariffs on Chinese goods could further cloud the outlook.

Investors are also watching Friday’s February jobs report and upcoming retail earnings for signals about the economy’s health. Concerns are mounting that tariffs could hit household spending, adding to fears of a broader economic slowdown. For now, markets are trying to regain footing, with futures climbing as traders await more clarity on trade policy and the strength of the labor market.

US Market Previous Day:

U.S. stocks climbed Friday, capping off a turbulent week and a losing month for major indexes. The rally came despite a brief pullback following a heated exchange between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during an unusual Oval Office clash, which heightened geopolitical concerns.

• S&P 500: +1.59% to 5,954.50
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +601.41 points (+1.39%) to 43,840.91
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.63% to 18,847.28

(Source: tradingview.com)

Stocks surged into the close, with buying momentum fueled by index rebalancing and a heavy imbalance in buy-side market-on-close orders at the NYSE. Despite Friday’s gains, the major benchmarks couldn’t escape monthly losses:

• Nasdaq Composite: -4% in February (worst performer)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.6%
• S&P 500: -1.4%

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose over 1 point to 22.40, marking its highest level since January 27, signaling heightened investor anxiety amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.

US Futures in Green:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.2%
• S&P 500 futures showed was up by 0.35%
• Nasdaq Composite futures lead the pack with gains of 0.66%.

Key Premarket Movers:

• Coinbase (COIN): +9.1% | MicroStrategy (MSTR): +12% | Riot Platforms (RIOT): +10%: Crypto-exposed stocks surged as Bitcoin rebounded following Trump’s strategic crypto reserve announcement.
• Tesla (TSLA): +3.4%: Morgan Stanley reinstated Tesla as its ‘Top Pick’ in U.S. autos, citing a compelling entry point after a 30% YTD decline.
• Nvidia (NVDA): -0.3%: Despite reports of Chinese buyers skirting U.S. export rules to acquire AI chips, shares dipped slightly.
• RTX Corp (RTX): +2.3% | Lockheed Martin (LMT): +0.4%: Defense stocks climbed after the U.S. approved a $3 billion arms deal to Israel.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV): -2.3%: Shares fell after a near-collision incident at Chicago Midway Airport.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ): +2.7%: Gained on the launch of a new stuffed crust offering to boost premium sales.

• Kroger (KR): -0.9%: CEO Rodney McMullen resigned following a board investigation into personal conduct violations.

Key Economic Data/News:

Investors are closely watching the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI reports on Monday at 10 a.m. ET for insights into the U.S. economy’s health. A reading above 50 signals growth, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction — data that could influence market sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed on Friday that Mexico proposed matching Trump’s tariffs on China, urging Canada to do the same. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce vowed retaliation, firmly opposing the U.S. measures. Bessent downplayed inflation concerns, suggesting that China would absorb the tariffs rather than pass costs to U.S. consumers.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker now estimates that U.S. GDP will contract by 1.5% in Q1, following weaker-than-expected consumer spending and soft exports in January, exacerbated by severe weather conditions.

Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of resilience. The Caixin/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February — beating forecasts of 50.3 and marking the fastest pace of expansion in three months. The official manufacturing PMI, released Saturday, also reflected factory growth, reinforcing optimism about China’s industrial recovery.

Earnings to Watch:

• Tuesday: Best Buy, Target (pre-market); Nordstrom (post-market)
• Wednesday: Foot Locker, Abercrombie & Fitch (pre-market)
• Thursday: Macy’s (pre-market); Costco, Broadcom, Gap (post-market)

Global Market Trends:

European markets climbed on Monday, driven by a surge in defense stocks following regional security talks that highlighted increased military spending. The Stoxx 600 index fluctuated in early trading but ultimately gained 1.16%. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense Index led the advance, heading for its best session in five years, while Germany’s DAX jumped 2.74%, leading regional gains.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets largely advanced as investors awaited more clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariffs on Mexico and Canada, set to begin Tuesday, remain flexible and could be lower than the proposed 25%. However, the 10% duty on Chinese imports is confirmed.

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.7%, closing at 37,785.47, while the Topix rose 1.77% to 2,729.56.
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.44%, while Mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.04% to 3,888.47.
• Taiwan’s Taiex Index fell 1.29%, hitting its lowest level since early February at 22,756.25.
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.9% to 8,245.7, supported by a stable S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reading of 50.4 for February, only slightly below January’s 50.6.
• South Korean markets were closed for a public holiday.

Debt Market:

 

(Source: tradingview.com)

On Monday, U.S. Treasury yields increased as investors anticipated further details on President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed nearly 2 basis points to 4.248%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose almost 4 basis points to 4.034%.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened, boosting bullion’s appeal. Investors sought refuge in precious metals amid lingering uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs and ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The prospect of prolonged geopolitical instability further supported gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, with other precious metals also advancing on the softer greenback.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday after posting their first monthly decline since November. Investors are closely watching developments in efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the potential fallout from impending U.S. tariffs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for repairing ties with President Donald Trump despite their public clash last week, though he emphasized the need for continued private discussions. Market sentiment improved after European leaders pledged stronger support for Ukraine. Oil prices saw early gains following official data showing China’s manufacturing activity expanded in February at its fastest pace in three months, suggesting potential demand strength.

Cryptocurrencies rallied sharply on Monday, with Bitcoin jumping over 20% from last week’s lows, trading as high as $95,000. The surge followed President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, which will include Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). This marks the first time Trump has explicitly supported a “crypto reserve” — implying regular, strategic crypto purchases rather than simply holding existing assets. Shares of crypto-exposed stocks soared in premarket trading, with Coinbase, Robinhood, and MicroStrategy posting significant gains.

Market Sentiment:

Investors are balancing hopes of an economic rebound with tariff risks and geopolitical tensions. This week’s retail earnings will offer crucial insights into consumer resilience and how companies are managing pricing strategies in light of trade disruptions. With 94% of S&P 500 companies having reported, Q4 earnings rose 16.9% YoY, with revenue up 5.2%. Markets are cautiously optimistic but remain vulnerable to trade and geopolitical shocks. The week’s job report and tariff details could set the tone for March trading.