• US stock futures fell Monday morning, indicating more losses amid lack of US-China trade progress; major indices logged 3 down weeks in the last 4.
• Thursday ended mixed: S&P 500 edged up (+0.13%), Nasdaq dipped (-0.13%), Dow sank (-1.33% dragged by UnitedHealth). Nvidia fell, Eli Lilly surged.
• Last week (holiday-shortened): Dow/Nasdaq fell over 2%, S&P 500 lost 1.5%.
• Monday futures were deep in the red: Dow -1.11%, S&P 500 -1.31%, Nasdaq -1.51%.
• China warned of retaliation against nations aligning with US on trade, accusing the US of “bullying”.
• Trump renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell (exploring removal). Fed’s Goolsbee suggested current activity boosted by tariff stockpiling. PBOC held Loan Prime Rates steady.
• Earnings: Netflix jumped +3% premarket on strong Q1 earnings/revenue beat; analysts raised price targets. Nvidia export curbs may boost China’s domestic AI chipmakers.
• Global Markets: Europe closed (Easter Monday). Asia mixed: China up, Japan down, South Korea flat. Australia/Hong Kong markets closed.
• US Treasury yields diverged: 10-year yield rose (to 4.383%) on tensions/Fed pressure, while 2-year yield fell. Strong inflows seen into short-term gov’t bonds.
• Gold hit a fresh record high (spot $3,393) as the US dollar weakened significantly; boosted by uncertainty. Oil fell over 2% on US-Iran talk hopes, demand worries. Bitcoin surged on the weaker dollar.
• Market sentiment remains cautious due to tariffs and Fed pressure (indices down ~7% since April 2); volatility and defensive rotation expected.

U.S. stock futures declined again on Monday, pointing to continued weakness after another losing week on Wall Street. Investors remain unsettled by the lack of meaningful progress in global trade negotiations, especially between the U.S. and China. The three major indexes have now posted three weekly declines in the last four, underscoring persistent uncertainty.

While the S&P 500 managed a modest gain in choppy trading on Thursday, it still ended the holiday-shortened week in the red, weighed down by mounting tariff concerns and weak investor sentiment.

US Market Previous Day:

U.S. equities ended mixed on Thursday in a volatile session, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.13% to 5,282.70, snapping a two-day losing streak. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.13% to finish at 16,286.45, marking its third consecutive decline. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 527.16 points, or 1.33%, to 39,142.23, dragged down by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth after the insurer reported disappointing earnings.

(Source: TradingView.com)

Nvidia fell nearly 3%, extending losses from Wednesday after announcing a $5.5 billion charge tied to U.S. export controls on its H20 GPUs. In contrast, Eli Lilly surged 14% following strong trial results for its experimental weight-loss pill. Netflix gained 1% ahead of its earnings release.

Markets briefly bounced midday after President Donald Trump said he anticipates trade agreements with both China and the European Union. However, investor sentiment remained cautious following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warnings that tariff-related inflation could complicate monetary policy.

Despite Thursday’s modest rebound in parts of the market, all three major indexes ended the holiday-shortened week lower. The Dow and Nasdaq dropped more than 2% each, while the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.

US Futures in Red:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined by 0.84%
• S&P 500 futures showed losses of 1.05%
• Nasdaq Composite futures lead the pack with losses of 1.38%.

Pre-Market Movers

• Tesla (TSLA) — Shares dropped over 4% after Barclays lowered its price target on the electric vehicle maker, citing “confusing” visibility heading into Q1 earnings. The downgrade reflects broader uncertainty around Tesla’s delivery figures and margin pressures.
• Netflix (NFLX) — Stock gained 2% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected Q1 earnings and revenue. Netflix also noted that it does not anticipate a material impact from tariffs. The results prompted multiple Wall Street analysts to raise their price targets.
• Amazon (AMZN) — Fell 1.7% following a downgrade by Raymond James to Outperform from Strong Buy. The firm also cut its price target, pointing to tariff-related headwinds and a weakening economic backdrop.
• Apple (AAPL) — Shares slipped nearly 3%, extending losses for the month to over 11% as tariff concerns continue to weigh on the iPhone maker. Uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade dynamics remains a significant overhang.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — Declined 1.4% after a federal judge ruled the company maintains an illegal monopoly in online advertising. The decision comes just days ahead of Alphabet’s scheduled earnings release on Thursday.
• Spotify (SPOT) — Rose 1% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform. The firm cited Spotify’s growing push into non-music content as a potential driver of future margin expansion.
• Hertz Global (HTZ) — Dropped nearly 10%, retracing some of last week’s explosive gains that followed Bill Ackman’s stake disclosure. Shares more than doubled last week but are now giving back some momentum.
• Newmont (NEM) — Climbed more than 3% as gold prices surged past $3,400 per ounce to new record highs. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) also traded over 3% higher, tracking broader gains in the precious metals sector.

Tariff Update:

Tensions escalated further as China warned it would retaliate against nations aligning with the U.S. in ways that threaten its interests. In a statement from the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing accused Washington of “abusing tariffs” and engaging in “unilateral bullying,” while positioning itself as a defender of “international fairness and justice.” The response follows reports that the Trump administration is looking to use tariff negotiations to pressure allied nations to curb ties with China.

Key Economic Data/News:

U.S. President Donald Trump reignited criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, stating that “if we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too.” The White House confirmed it is exploring legal avenues to potentially remove Powell from his position — not the first time Trump has publicly clashed with the Fed.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Sunday suggested that current elevated economic activity may be temporary, as consumers and businesses stockpile ahead of new tariffs. He warned that activity “might look artificially high” now but could drop off by summer. Sectors like autos and electronics are particularly exposed.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China left its loan prime rates unchanged on Monday, citing resilient macro data and a focus on yuan stability amid trade tensions. The 1-year LPR remains at 3.1%, while the 5-year rate holds at 3.6%. China’s Q1 GDP rose 5.4% year-on-year, with March retail sales and industrial production also exceeding expectations.

Earnings Season/Company News:

Netflix shares climbed over 3% in premarket trading after delivering a strong first-quarter earnings report. The streaming giant posted earnings per share and revenue figures that topped analyst estimates, with revenue rising 13% year-on-year. The upbeat results prompted several Wall Street firms to raise their price targets on the stock. JPMorgan raised its target from $1,025 to $1,150, while Wells Fargo lifted its target to $1,222, suggesting potential upside of over 25%. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and Piper Sandler also revised their targets upward, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a move to $1,200. Unlike many multinationals, Netflix has limited exposure to tariff-related headwinds.

Meanwhile, U.S. restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China may bolster Beijing’s domestic AI chip industry. The Commerce Department confirmed that Nvidia’s H20 GPUs, along with select AMD chips, now require export licenses. Analysts note that these curbs could accelerate momentum for local Chinese players such as Huawei and Cambricon Technologies, which design homegrown AI chips and GPUs.

A wave of first-quarter earnings reports this week will be closely scrutinized for insight into how companies are navigating the escalating tariff landscape and growing concerns over a U.S. recession. Market participants will be watching for commentary on consumer spending, supply chain adjustments, and forward guidance, particularly in light of persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. Tesla will be among the most anticipated reports. The electric vehicle maker’s stock has plunged 40% year-to-date, weighed down by broad market weakness, growing competition, and political controversy stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s advisory role in the Trump administration. Investors will be eager to hear how the company is managing demand amid boycott calls and rising input costs. Alphabet will also report earnings this week, with particular attention on digital ad trends and cloud performance after tech stocks led last week’s decline.

Key Earnings Reports to Watch This Week:

• Tuesday: Tesla (after the bell)
• Wednesday: Boeing (before the bell); IBM, Chipotle Mexican Grill (after the bell)
• Thursday: Merck, PepsiCo, Southwest Airlines, Procter & Gamble, Comcast, American Airlines (before the bell); Alphabet, Intel (after the bell)

Global Market Trends:

European markets were closed Monday in observance of the Easter holiday.

Asia-Pacific equities posted mixed results. China’s CSI 300 gained 0.33% to close at 3,784.88 after the People’s Bank of China held its loan prime rates steady, keeping the 1-year LPR at 3.10% and the 5-year at 3.60%, as expected. The decision reflects a balancing act between stabilizing the yuan and maintaining accommodative monetary policy amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.30% to 34,279.92, while the broader Topix slipped 1.18% to 2,528.93. South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.2% to 2,488.42, but the Kosdaq declined 0.32% to 715.45. Markets in Australia and Hong Kong remained closed for the holiday.

Debt Market:

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Monday as investors weighed ongoing tariff tensions and renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.383%, reflecting continued selling pressure in longer-dated bonds. In contrast, the 2-year yield slipped 2 basis points to 3.777%, as short-term bonds attracted renewed investor interest.

(Source: TradingView.com)

The upward movement in yields follows comments by President Donald Trump on Friday, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates and suggesting the White House may explore removing him. The resulting market uncertainty has prompted both domestic and foreign investors to reassess the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries.

Analysts point to a broader unwind of leveraged basis trades by hedge funds, alongside reduced foreign demand, as key drivers behind the recent selloff. However, short-term government bonds are emerging as a relative safe haven. According to LSEG Lipper, U.S. short-term government bond funds have seen $18.1 billion in inflows so far in April, positioning them for their strongest month in over two years. By contrast, overall U.S. bond market funds have experienced $47.7 billion in outflows this month.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold extended its historic rally, reaching a fresh all-time high on Monday. Spot prices surged more than 2.25% to cross $3,400. A sharp decline in the U.S. dollar—now at a three-year low—has made the yellow metal more attractive for foreign buyers. The recent rally has been underpinned by rising global uncertainty, concerns over the U.S. dollar’s role as a reserve currency, and geopolitical friction stemming from President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Gold has now climbed more than $700 year-to-date and remains well-supported by “risk-off” sentiment across markets.

Oil prices fell over 2% on Monday amid signs of potential progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Hopes for easing tensions between the two countries offset recent supply concerns stemming from new U.S. sanctions on a Chinese refinery allegedly processing Iranian crude. Broader worries about slowing global demand, fueled by escalating trade conflicts, also weighed on crude prices.

(Source: TradingView.com)

Bitcoin rebounded sharply, regaining ground lost earlier in the month as the U.S. dollar weakened. The digital asset surged as investors sought alternative stores of value amid concerns about political interference in monetary policy and the long-term strength of the dollar. Similar to gold, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against currency devaluation and fiat instability.

Market Sentiment:

Investors remain cautious as the Trump administration’s tariff strategy and rhetoric toward the Federal Reserve fuel market anxiety. The major U.S. equity indices are down approximately 7% since April 2, when the White House first introduced a sweeping round of “reciprocal” import levies. The recent slide in equities, Treasury prices, and the U.S. dollar points to a broader loss of confidence in American financial assets.

Analysts expect market volatility to persist as the earnings season accelerates. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week, including key names such as Alphabet, Tesla, and Boeing. With investor attention split between macro uncertainty and corporate fundamentals, defensive positioning and rotation into safer assets—particularly short-term government bonds—are likely to continue.