• U.S. stock index futures surged early Tuesday, offering a reprieve from recent heavy losses as investors assessed the economic fallout of President Trump’s tariffs.
• The sharp move higher followed three consecutive days of aggressive selling.
• The S&P 500 briefly flirted with bear market territory Monday before paring losses.
• President Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports. China responded forcefully, vowing to “fight to the end.” White House advisor Peter Navarro accused Vietnam of “nontariff cheating.”
• European markets surged, breaking a four-day losing streak. Markets across the Asia-Pacific region also moved higher, rebounding from steep declines. However, market sentiment remained fragile in some Southeast Asian markets.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose.
• Gold prices climbed back above $3,000 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating trade tensions. Crude oil futures steadied following sharp declines. Bitcoin rose, continuing its recovery from recent lows.

U.S. stock index futures surged early Tuesday, offering a reprieve from the historic volatility and heavy losses seen in recent sessions, as investors weighed the potential economic fallout of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. The sharp move higher comes after three consecutive days of aggressive selling, with market participants reassessing valuations and seeking opportunities amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s next steps on trade.

Futures on the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq-100 were all significantly higher in premarket trading. The bounce comes on the heels of one of the most volatile trading sessions in recent memory. Monday saw the highest trading volume in at least 18 years, with over 29 billion shares exchanged, highlighting the intensity of investor reaction to the White House’s trade moves.

The S&P 500 flirted with bear market territory Monday afternoon — briefly falling more than 20% from its all-time high — before paring losses to end the day slightly lower. That followed last week’s 10% two-day plunge, the worst since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Volatility has soared as investors attempt to price in the rapidly evolving economic risks tied to a global trade war, including a potential recession, inflationary shocks, and deteriorating corporate earnings.

Though Tuesday’s gains suggest tentative buying interest and short-covering activity, sentiment remains fragile. Much of Wall Street is looking for clearer communication from the White House on how long the tariffs will remain in place, whether additional levies will be imposed, and if diplomatic negotiations with key trade partners such as China or the EU are on the table.

US Market Previous Day:

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday after a wild trading session marked by unprecedented volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its largest intraday point swing in history, moving a staggering 2,595 points from its session low to high before ultimately finishing the day down 349 points, or 0.91%, at 37,965.60. The sharp swings came as investors reacted to escalating trade tensions, with President Donald Trump threatening even higher tariffs on China, fueling fears of a global recession.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.23% to close at 5,062.25. The broad market index had dropped as much as 4.7% earlier in the session, briefly entering bear market territory before recovering some losses. The Nasdaq Composite managed to post a small gain, rising 0.10% to 15,603.26, as investors rotated into select megacap tech names like Nvidia and Palantir. Still, at one point, the tech-heavy index was down more than 5%.

Market speculation about a potential pause in tariff enforcement briefly helped fuel a sharp rebound in the afternoon, pushing the Dow into positive territory mid-session. However, the rally faded quickly as the White House reinforced its aggressive trade stance. Monday’s frenzied trading session also saw volume surge to more than 29 billion shares — the highest level in at least 18 years and far above the recent daily average.

Apple was again in the spotlight, with shares continuing to slide under the weight of the trade war. The iPhone maker has lost about $638 billion in market capitalization over just three trading sessions, shedding nearly 19% of its value. With a supply chain heavily reliant on China, India, Vietnam, and Thailand — all now subject to steep new tariffs — analysts say Apple may be forced to raise consumer prices to protect its margins, further straining demand amid economic uncertainty.

US Futures in Green:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lead the pack with gains of 3.28%
• S&P 500 futures showed meagre gains of 3.16%
• Nasdaq Composite futures rose by 3.19%

Key Economic Data/News:

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, which would bring the total duties on goods from China to a staggering 104%. The move came after Beijing retaliated with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, escalating tensions in the ongoing trade war. On Tuesday, China’s Commerce Ministry responded forcefully, saying it “resolutely opposes” the new tariffs and vowed to “fight to the end.”

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro also turned his attention to Vietnam, accusing the country of “nontariff cheating.” Navarro alleged that Chinese goods are frequently re-exported through Vietnam and raised concerns over intellectual property theft. His comments indicate that the Trump administration’s use of tariffs extends beyond addressing trade deficits — aiming instead to reshape the global manufacturing and trade landscape.

Earnings Season/Company News:

Chipmaker Micron Technology is reportedly weighing a tariff-related surcharge on certain customers starting April 9, according to Reuters. The company had previously hinted at this possibility during its March 20 earnings call, signaling how tariff pressures may soon hit downstream buyers.

Broadcom shares rose 3% in premarket trading after the company announced a $10 billion share repurchase authorization through the end of the year. The move was seen as a show of confidence in the firm’s long-term outlook amid market volatility.

Walgreens reported stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue on Tuesday. The company is benefiting from ongoing cost-cutting efforts as it prepares to go private. Private equity firm Sycamore Partners is set to acquire Walgreens in a $10 billion deal, expected to close in the fourth quarter. Given the pending transaction, Walgreens withdrew its fiscal 2025 guidance, which had previously projected full-year adjusted earnings of $1.40 to $1.80 per share.

Global Market Trends:

European markets surged on Tuesday, breaking a four-day losing streak that had been driven by escalating global tariff tensions. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index jumped 2.6%, with nearly every sector and major exchange in positive territory. The rally follows Monday’s sharp 4.5% decline, during which the index touched a 14-month low. Despite that, losses were trimmed from an earlier 6% drop. Last week, the Stoxx 600 posted an 8.4% loss—its worst week in five years. In response to the volatility, European Union leaders urged calm, emphasizing that regional unity and composure will be key assets in confronting the Trump administration’s aggressive trade stance.

Markets across the Asia-Pacific region also moved higher on Tuesday, rebounding from steep declines triggered by President Trump’s escalating tariff threats against China. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 6.03% to close at 33,012.58, while the broader Topix gained 6.26% to end at 2,432.02. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 2.27% to close at 7,510. South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.26% to finish at 2,334.23, and the Kosdaq added 1.1% to 658.45. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.51% to close at 20,127.68, while the tech-heavy Hang Seng Tech Index bounced back strongly, gaining 4.49%. These moves came after Monday’s dramatic sell-off, when the Hang Seng fell over 13%—its steepest one-day loss since 1997. Mainland China’s CSI 300 climbed 1.71% to 3,650.76. Elsewhere, market sentiment remained fragile: Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite dropped 7.87% after circuit breakers were lifted, Vietnam’s benchmark index fell 6.48% following a holiday break, and Thailand’s SET index hit its lowest level since March 2020, according to data from LSEG.

Debt Market:

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors evaluated President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the potential for increased levies on China. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.216%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 3.796%.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold prices climbed back above the $3,000 per ounce mark on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The rebound comes after three consecutive sessions of losses, with investors once again turning to the precious metal amid fears of a full-scale global trade war. Since President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on April 2, concerns over a potential recession have driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The metal, which is traditionally seen as a store of value during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, has risen 15% year-to-date. A decline in the dollar index (.DXY) further supported gold, making it cheaper for non-U.S. buyers.

Crude oil futures steadied on Tuesday following sharp declines triggered by recession fears stemming from Trump’s tariff escalation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $58.95 per barrel on Monday—the first time it had dipped below the $60 level in four years. Since last Wednesday’s tariff announcement, WTI has dropped over 14%, while Brent crude has declined more than 13%. The prospect of reduced global demand due to trade frictions continues to weigh heavily on sentiment, even as OPEC+ prepares for a possible supply increase.

Bitcoin rose on Tuesday, continuing its recovery from recent five-month lows as traders stepped in to buy the dip. Despite ongoing market volatility, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shown surprising resilience, especially in comparison to past crises. Broader crypto markets followed Bitcoin’s lead, bouncing slightly after weeks of declines driven by risk-off sentiment tied to Trump’s tariffs. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin’s smaller drawdown—currently about 26%—stands out against past downturns of up to 70%, suggesting the asset is supported by a more robust capital base this time around. However, sentiment remains fragile amid lingering macroeconomic uncertainty.

Market Sentiment:

Markets are holding onto any signals that President Donald Trump may ease his aggressive tariff agenda. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the White House is open to “meaningful negotiations” with as many as 50 countries that have responded “positively” to Trump’s trade policies. According to Bessent, Japan is expected to be among the first to engage in talks, though he cautioned the process could be lengthy. Hopes for diplomatic progress offered a temporary reprieve to jittery markets, which have been whipsawed by volatility.

Investor fears continue to rise that the recent market turmoil could trigger a vicious feedback loop, with hedge funds and other leveraged players forced to sell equities and riskier assets to meet margin calls. On Monday, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged to as high as 60—an extreme level rarely seen outside of bear markets. This spike may indicate that a technical bounce could be on the horizon, as such elevated readings often precede short-term recoveries.

With Trump’s tariffs coming in far steeper than initially expected, analysts are now adjusting their outlooks for interest rates. Saira Malik, head of equities and fixed income at Nuveen, noted that the firm’s probability-weighted forecast has shifted from four expected rate cuts by the end of 2026 to 6.6 cuts. Malik added that Nuveen’s estimate for the fair value of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also dropped—from 4.5% to 4.0%—reflecting a growing belief that the Federal Reserve will need to act more aggressively to counter recession risks.