Stocks rebound after tariff-fueled selloff. Nvidia plunges 8.5%, Bitcoin crashes below $80K, and global markets tumble. Investors await key PCE inflation data as Trump reignites trade war fears. Stay updated on market volatility and economic trends.

• Turbulent end to February across global markets. Heightened volatility due to trade tensions, inflation concerns, and economic uncertainty.
• US indexes all set to finish the month of February lower.
• Risk-off sentiment prevalent across equities, commodities, and debt markets. Investor anxiety ahead of key inflation data (PCE).
• Escalating trade tensions from US tariff announcements on multiple countries. Rising jobless claims fueling concerns of economic softening. Inverted yield curve signaling potential recession.
• Significant declines in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, despite earnings beats.
• European markets showing relative resilience compared to steeper declines in US and Asia-Pacific.
• Sharp drop in Bitcoin and related crypto assets, reflecting risk-off sentiment. Oil prices falling on tariff threats and supply concerns. Gold prices slipping on stronger dollar.
• US treasury yields declining as investors await inflation data.

Market Overview:

Stock futures rose slightly on Friday as investors sought relief at the end of a turbulent week and month, while keeping a close eye on key inflation data. Crypto-related stocks across U.S. and European markets tumbled, following Bitcoin’s sharp decline below $80,000, reflecting risk-off sentiment. Nvidia shares fell sharply on Thursday despite beating fourth-quarter estimates, signaling investor concern over future growth and geopolitical risk.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump announced that the proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect on March 4, following a one-month moratorium. He also threatened additional tariffs on China and the European Union, escalating trade war fears. The tariff announcement, coupled with a rise in jobless claims, fueled concerns of economic softening. Traders are now awaiting the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — for clues on the future path of interest rates.

US Market Previous Day:

U.S. markets sank on Thursday amid renewed tariff fears and a sharp decline in Nvidia shares. The S&P 500 dropped 1.59% to close at 5,861.57, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.78% to 18,544.42, weighed down by Nvidia’s 8.5% loss after its earnings report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 193.62 points, or 0.45%, ending at 43,239.50.

(Source: tradingview.com)

Volatility spiked after President Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would move forward as planned. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now on track for their worst week since September 2024, with both indexes in negative territory for the week and month.

US Futures Mixed: 

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lead the pack with gains of 0.41%.
• S&P 500 futures showed meagre gains of 0.17%
• Nasdaq Composite futures remained flat with decline of 0.03%

Notable Premarket Movers:

• Nvidia (NVDA): Down 8.5% after quarterly results. Despite beating expectations, investors punished the stock amid worries about slowing AI growth and potential Taiwan tariffs.
• Crypto-Exposed Stocks: Fell in tandem with Bitcoin’s slide. Coinbase, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Bit Digital all declined as investors shunned risk assets.
• Dell (DELL): Edged lower after warning of a drop in adjusted gross margin in fiscal 2026, driven by higher costs for AI server infrastructure.
• HP (HPQ): Dipped after issuing softer guidance, citing higher costs from incoming tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Autodesk (ADSK): Climbed after posting stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings and issuing an optimistic full-year outlook.
• Monster Beverage (MNST): Rose on better-than-expected Q4 gross margins, benefiting from price adjustments and distribution efficiencies.
• Walgreens (WBA): Dropped following a Deutsche Bank downgrade, with analysts skeptical about a reported take-private bid from Sycamore Partners.
• Elastic (ESTC): Surged after raising full-year guidance, buoyed by strong enterprise software demand.
• DLocal (DLO): Plunged after missing earnings expectations and receiving a rating downgrade from Morgan Stanley.

Key Economic Data/News:

• Tariffs: Trump reaffirmed that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will start March 4, with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. He also threatened a 25% tariff on the European Union by April 2, escalating global trade tensions.
• China’s Response: The Ministry of Commerce promised retaliation, raising fears of a renewed U.S.-China trade war. Given that the U.S. is China’s largest trading partner, this could intensify supply chain disruptions.
• Jobless Claims: Increased to 242,000, up 22,000 from the prior week — above consensus estimates of 225,000. Layoffs in Big Tech have been mounting, with companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft continuing cost-cutting measures.

Earnings Season/Company News:

Nvidia shares tumbled 8.5% on Thursday, erasing $273 billion in market value and bringing the company’s market capitalization down to $2.94 trillion — leaving Apple as the sole member of the $3 trillion club. Nvidia’s stock is down 10% year-to-date, as investors grapple with worries over export controls, potential tariffs, the rise of more efficient AI models, and slowing growth. The majority of Nvidia’s advanced AI chips are produced by TSMC in Taiwan, a key concern as Trump, on the campaign trail, has accused the island of “stealing” the U.S. chip business and vowed to impose tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors. If those tariffs materialize, the outlook for Nvidia could worsen further, amplifying the company’s recent losses.

Meanwhile, Dell shares (NYSE: DELL) dipped in premarket trading after the company forecast a drop in adjusted gross margin for fiscal 2026. Weighed down by rising costs tied to AI server expansion and sluggish PC demand, Dell expects its margin rate to decline by around 100 basis points for the year.

Global Market Trends:

European markets slipped on Friday as investors reacted to renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and the sharp sell-off in Nvidia shares. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.45%, paring earlier losses. France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.51%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.61%, while London’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend, rising 0.25%. The Stoxx Technology index led regional losses, with European semiconductor stocks under pressure after Nvidia’s steep decline on Wall Street.

Asia-Pacific markets also tumbled after Trump confirmed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports would take effect next week.

• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200: -1.16% to 8,172.4
• Japan’s Nikkei 225: -2.88% to 37,155.5
• Topix: -1.98% to 2,682.09
• South Korea’s Kospi: -3.39% to 2,532.78
• Kosdaq: -3.49% to 743.96
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index: -3.55%
• China’s CSI 300: -1.97% to 3,890.05

The sharp declines reflect heightened investor anxiety over escalating trade tensions and their potential impact on global tech supply chains.

Debt Market:

(Source: tradingview.com)

On Friday, U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors awaited the release of a key inflation report—the most anticipated data of the week. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield decreased by more than 4 basis points to 4.246%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was approximately 4 basis points lower at 4.042%.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold prices slipped in Asian trading on Friday as the U.S. dollar edged up ahead of a key inflation report. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1%, making gold more expensive for international buyers. Despite this, gold remained on track for modest monthly gains, supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S. trade tariff concerns. Investors are awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — for clues on interest rate policy.

Oil prices fell over 1% on Friday and were set to close the month lower for the first time in three months. Markets remain on edge as Washington’s tariff threats loom, Iraq resumes oil exports from Kurdistan, and OPEC+ debates whether to raise or freeze output in April. Ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine further added to investor uncertainty.

Bitcoin tumbled 3.45% to around $80,500, nearly 25% below its December all-time high following Trump’s election victory. Crypto sentiment deteriorated amid falling global equities and Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Further rattling investors, Bybit, a major exchange, reported a $1.5 billion hack, compounding the sector’s losses.

Market Sentiment:

Global markets have been on shaky ground as investors grapple with heightened volatility. European markets outperformed U.S. indexes in February, but Wall Street remains under pressure:

• Nasdaq Composite: -5.5% in February, with a 5% drop this week, led by Nvidia’s 8.5% earnings-driven plunge.
• S&P 500: -2.5% week-to-date, down nearly 3% for the month.
• Dow Jones: -0.4% this week, down 3% in February.

Traders are anxiously awaiting the PCE report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with forecasts predicting a 0.3% monthly rise and a 2.5% annual increase. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, is expected to climb 0.3% monthly and 2.6% year-over-year. The data could heavily influence the Fed’s rate decision at its March 18-19 meeting.

With economic warning signs flashing, investor sentiment remains fragile as markets seek clarity on inflation, tariffs, and the resilience of the consumer.